Mouse over estimates to read longer descriptions of each projection.
| Estimate (inches) | Agency | Report (Year) | Source of Information | Note | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2050 | 2100 | ||||||
| low | high | low | high | ||||
| 7.9 | 78.8 | NOAA | Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment (2012) | Synthesis | |||
| 31.5 | 78.8 | n/a | Pfeffer, W. T., et al., Kinetic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise (2008) | Original research | |||
| 35.5 | 63.0 | Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme | Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (2011) | Synthesis | |||
| 18.0 | 60.0 | BCDC | Sea Level Rise: Predications and Implications for SF Bay, p. 15 (1988) | National Research Council. Responding to Changes in Sea Level (1987) | |||
| 5.9 | 23.6 | 19.7 | 59.1 | US Army Corps of Engineers | Planning for Sea Level Rise: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Policy (2002) | National Research Council. Responding to Changes in Sea Level (1987) | This is the basis for the current Shoreline study |
| 19.7 | 59.1 | US Army Corps of Engineers | Sea-Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs (2011) | IPCC 2007; NRC 1987 | Note: Includes instructions for calculating local sea-level rise | ||
| 19.7 | 59.1 | n/a | Rohling, E. J. High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period (2007) | Original research | |||
| 40.2 | 57.1 | California Climate Change Center/Pacific Institute | Heberger, M., et al. The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast (2009) | Based on Cayan, et al., 2006; Rahmstorf 2007; Cayan, et al. 2009 | |||
| 6.9 | 19.0 | 19.8 | 55.2 | National Academy of Sciences | Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (2012) | Synthesis | |
| 11.8 | 17.7 | 23.6 | 55.2 | California Climate Change Center | Cayan, D., et al., Climate Change Scenarios and Sea Level Rise Estimates for the California 2008 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment (2009) | Rahmstorf 2007; other sources | |
| 19.7 | 55.2 | n/a | Rahmstorf, S., A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise (2007) | Original research | |||
| 3.2 | 16.2 | 7.9 | 55.2 | DWR | Technical Memorandum: Delta Risk Management Strategy. . . , p. 13 (2007) | IPCC 2001, Rahmstorf 2007, extrapolation | |
| 7.1 | 55.2 | USGS | Report of workshop in Menlo Park (2008) | IPCC 2007; Rahmstorf 2007 | |||
| 55.2 | USGS | Knowles, N. Projecting Vulnerability to Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay and Delta (2008) | Community Climate System Model using A2 emission scenario | ||||
| 19.7 | 55.2 | CALFED Bay-Delta Program | Sea Level Rise and Delta Planning (Independent Science Board) (2007) | Recent empirical models after IPCC 2007 | |||
| 55.0 | Delta Vision Blue Ribbon Task Force | Letter to Governor, March 24, 2008 (2008) | CalFed Independent Science Board | Assumption for strategic plan; asks that Governor issue an executive order with estimates of sea level rise for 2050 and 2100 | |||
| 16.0 | 55.0 | BCDC | Living with a Rising Bay: Vulnerability and Adaptation in San Francisco Bay and on its Shoreline (2009) | Cayan, et al. 2009; Rahmstorf 2007 | |||
| 54.8 | California Climate Change Center | Knowles, N. Potential Inundation Due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region (2009) | Cayan, et al. 2009; Cayan, et al. 2008 | ||||
| 35.5 | 51.2 | n/a | Grinsted, A., et al., Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD (2009) | Original research | |||
| 22.5 | 43.3 | n/a | Jevrejeva, S., et al. Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios (2012) | Original research | |||
| 16.5 | 39.4 | BCDC | Analysis of a Tidal Barrage at the Golden Gate (2007) | ||||
| 18.5 | 39.4 | n/a | Horton, et al., Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs . . ., Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008) | Original research | |||
| 19.7 | 39.4 | International Scientific Congress on Climate Change | Rising sea levels set to have major impacts around the world (2009) | Research presented at the conference | |||
| 3.9 | 39.4 | BCDC | BCDC Climate Change Planning Project (2007) | IPCC and Climate Action Team | "Sea level rise models indicate that a 30 cm (11.8 inch) rise in sea level would shift the 100-year storm surge-induced flood event to once every 10 years." | ||
| 5.9 | 37.4 | USGS | National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the US Pacific Coast (2000) | IPCC 1995 | Old report | ||
| 12.0 | 36.0 | Calif. Coastal Commission | Overview of Sea Level Rise and Some Implications. . . , p. 12 (2001) | EPA, Titus and Narayanan 1995 | |||
| 5.1 | 35.1 | Calif. Climate Change Ctr. | Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview, p. 10 (2006) | Cayan, et al. | |||
| 22.0 | 35.0 | Calif. Climate Change Ctr. | Our Changing Climate, p. 12-13 (2006) | ||||
| 22.0 | 35.0 | Calif. Ocean Protection Council | Resolution on Climate Change (2007) | Our Changing Climate | |||
| 3.6 | 34.8 | DWR | Progress on Incorporating Climate Change. . . (2006) | Based on IPCC 2001 | |||
| 4.0 | 33.0 | Governor's Climate Action Team | Governor's Climate Action Team Report (2006) | Based on Cayan, et al., 2006 | |||
| 2.8 | 32.3 | n/a | Siddall, M., et al. Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change (2009) | Original research | |||
| 7.9 | 31.5 | USGS | Projecting Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise in the SF Bay and Delta (2006) | Knowles (USGS) | |||
| 7.1 | 31.1 | US EPA | Future Sea Level Changes (2007) | IPCC 2007 | |||
| 2.4 | 12.6 | 3.9 | 28.4 | Calif. Climate Change Ctr. | Projecting Future Sea Level, p. 5 (2006) | Cayan, et al. | Data on waves and storm surges, too |
| 4.3 | 28.4 | n/a | Cayan, D., et al., Climate Change Projections of Sea Level Extremes Along the California Coast, Climatic Change 87 (suppl. 1) (2008) | Original research | |||
| 24.0 | State of Maine | Wetlands and Climate Change webcast, May 13, 3008 (2008) | |||||
| 7.1 | 23.2 | IPCC | Report of Working Group 1: Summary for Policymakers, p. 13 (2007) | Does not include ice flows, which could increase the upper number by 10-20 cm (4-8 in.). See RealClimate.org | |||
| 7.1 | 23.2 | IPCC | Technical Paper on Climate Change and Water, p. 37 (2008) | ||||
| 18.9 | USGS | Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of GGNRA to Seal-Level Rise (2005) | IPCC 2001 | ||||
| 13.4 | 15.0 | NOAA National Marine Fisheries | Viability Criteria for Steelhead of S. Calif., p. 20 (2007) | Raper and Braithwaite, 2006 | |||
| 11.0 | 13.4 | n/a | Church, J. and N. White. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise (2006) | Original research | |||
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Created and maintained by Bob Teeter, District Librarian; organized by Sarah Young