Future Sea Level Rise Scenarios

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Estimate (inches) Agency Report (Year) Source of Information Note
2050 2100
low high low high
      115.0 De Bars, D., et al. A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss (2017) New research on Antarctic ice melt  
    11.8 98.4 NOAA Sweet, W. V., et al. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States (2017) Parris, et al. (2012) and other recent research  
7.2 22.8 12.0 82.8 California Ocean Science Trust Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea Level Rise Science (2017) Synthesis, mostly Kopp, et al. (2014) Specifies 10 feet in 2100 under the H++ scenario
    31.5 78.8 n/a Pfeffer, W. T., et al., Kinetic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise (2008) Original research  
    7.9 78.8 NOAA Parris, A., et al. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment (2012) Synthesis  
3.9 19.7 10.2 74.9 n/a Kopp, R. E., et al. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites (2014) Original research  
      70.9 n/a Jevrejeva, S., et al. Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 (2014) Original research  
    35.5 63.0 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (2011) Synthesis  
    18.0 60.0 BCDC Sea Level Rise: Predications and Implications for SF Bay, p. 15 (1988) National Research Council. Responding to Changes in Sea Level (1987)  
    19.7 59.1 US Army Corps of Engineers Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil Works Programs (2013) IPCC 2007; NRC 1987 Note: Includes instructions for calculating local sea-level rise
5.9 23.6 19.7 59.1 US Army Corps of Engineers Planning for Sea Level Rise: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Policy (2002) National Research Council. Responding to Changes in Sea Level (1987) This is the basis for the current Shoreline study
    19.7 59.1 n/a Rohling, E. J. High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period (2007) Original research  
    40.2 57.1 California Climate Change Center/Pacific Institute Heberger, M., et al. The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast (2009) Based on Cayan, et al., 2006; Rahmstorf 2007; Cayan, et al. 2009  
6.9 19.0 19.8 55.2 National Academy of Sciences Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (2012) Synthesis  
11.8 17.7 23.6 55.2 California Climate Change Center Cayan, D., et al., Climate Change Scenarios and Sea Level Rise Estimates for the California 2008 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment (2009) Rahmstorf 2007; other sources  
      55.2 USGS Knowles, N. Projecting Vulnerability to Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay and Delta (2008) Community Climate System Model using A2 emission scenario  
    19.7 55.2 n/a Rahmstorf, S., A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise (2007) Original research  
3.2 16.2 7.9 55.2 DWR Technical Memorandum: Delta Risk Management Strategy. . . Topical Area: Climate Change, p. 13 (2008) IPCC 2001, Rahmstorf 2007, extrapolation  
    7.1 55.2 USGS Report of workshop in Menlo Park (2008) IPCC 2007; Rahmstorf 2007  
    19.7 55.2 CALFED Bay-Delta Program Sea Level Rise and Delta Planning (Independent Science Board) (2007) Recent empirical models after IPCC 2007  
      55.0 Delta Vision Blue Ribbon Task Force Letter to Governor, March 24, 2008 (2008) CalFed Independent Science Board Assumption for strategic plan; asks that Governor issue an executive order with estimates of sea level rise for 2050 and 2100
  16.0   55.0 BCDC Living with a Rising Bay: Vulnerability and Adaptation in San Francisco Bay and on its Shoreline (2011) Cayan, et al. 2009; Rahmstorf 2007  
      54.8 California Climate Change Center Knowles, N. Potential Inundation Due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region (2009) Cayan, et al. 2009; Cayan, et al. 2008  
    9.4 51.6 n/a Kopp, R. E., et al., Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era (2016) Original research  
    35.5 51.2 n/a Grinsted, A., et al., Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD (2009) Original research  
    22.5 43.3 n/a Jevrejeva, S., et al. Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios (2012) Original research  
    3.9 39.4 BCDC BCDC Climate Change Planning Project (2007) IPCC and Climate Action Team "Sea level rise models indicate that a 30 cm (11.8 inch) rise in sea level would shift the 100-year storm surge-induced flood event to once every 10 years."
  16.5   39.4 BCDC Analysis of a Tidal Barrage at the Golden Gate (2007)    
    18.5 39.4 n/a Horton, et al., Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs . . ., Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008) Original research  
    19.7 39.4 International Scientific Congress on Climate Change Rising sea levels set to have major impacts around the world (2009) Research presented at the conference  
    5.9 37.4 USGS National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the US Pacific Coast (2000) IPCC 1995 Old report
  12.0   36.0 Calif. Coastal Commission Overview of Sea Level Rise and Some Implications. . . , p. 12 (2001) EPA, Titus and Narayanan 1995  
    5.1 35.1 Calif. Climate Change Ctr. Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview, p. 10 (2006) Cayan, et al.  
    22.0 35.0 Calif. Climate Change Ctr. Our Changing Climate, p. 12-13 (2006)    
    22.0 35.0 Calif. Ocean Protection Council Resolution on Climate Change (2007) Our Changing Climate  
    3.6 34.8 DWR Progress on Incorporating Climate Change. . . (2006) Based on IPCC 2001  
    4.0 33.0 Governor's Climate Action Team Governor's Climate Action Team Report (2006) Based on Cayan, et al., 2006  
    2.8 32.3 n/a Siddall, M., et al. Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change (2009) Original research  
    7.9 31.5 USGS Projecting Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise in the SF Bay and Delta (2006) Knowles (USGS)  
    7.1 31.1 US EPA Future Sea Level Changes (2007) IPCC 2007  
    20.5 29.2 Arctic Council Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost. Summary for Policy-makers (2017) Synthesis These numbers are minimum, depending on whether GHGs are reduced or there is a business-as-usual scenario.
    4.3 28.4 n/a Cayan, D., et al., Climate Change Projections of Sea Level Extremes Along the California Coast, Climatic Change 87 (suppl. 1) (2008) Original research  
2.4 12.6 3.9 28.4 Calif. Climate Change Ctr. Projecting Future Sea Level, p. 5 (2006) Cayan, et al. Data on waves and storm surges, too
      24.0 State of Maine Wetlands and Climate Change webcast, May 13, 3008 (2008)    
    7.1 23.2 IPCC Report of Working Group 1: Summary for Policymakers, p. 13 (2007)   Does not include ice flows, which could increase the upper number by 10-20 cm (4-8 in.). See RealClimate.org
    7.1 23.2 IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change and Water, p. 37 (2008)    
      18.9 USGS Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of GGNRA to Seal-Level Rise (2005) IPCC 2001  
    13.4 15.0 NOAA National Marine Fisheries Viability Criteria for Steelhead of S. Calif., p. 20 (2007) Raper and Braithwaite, 2006  
    11.0 13.4 n/a Church, J. and N. White. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise (2006) Original research  
    38.6 10.2 IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (IPCC AR5) (2013) Synthesis  

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